Recession, Stagflation, and Falling Stock Prices
Two quarters of negative GDP growth in a row is the standard definition of a recession.
The Correction Began In 2021
The loss of momentum, leading to a stock market correction, was clear by the summer.
2021 stock market return concentrated in the top 5
2021 is a stock market bubble like 1999 where investment returns are generated by a handful of stocks.
SEE-SAW: THE TECH BUBBLE AND A PIVOT TO VALUE
Avoid the bubble, shift to the other side of the see-saw and avoid excessively valued stocks.
VOLATILITY UPDATE - ALLOCATION ADJUSTMENTS
The stock market has been volatile lately, we are allocated to blue chips
GROWTH STOCKS STRUGGLE IN 2021
Upon closer examination high quality categories of the market have struggled.
STOCK MARKET RETURN -13% WITHOUT A HANDFUL OF STOCKS
If it wasn’t for a small number of mega cap stocks the 2020 stock market return is negative.
FEDERAL RESERVE and INTEREST RATES - Q1 2020
The Federal Reserve is cutting rates at a pace that could indicate a recession.