Recession Red Flags – All 5 Flashing Danger
All five dependable recessionary red flags are indicating that we could be in a recession soon.
Bear Market Persists - Be Cautious
A handful of stocks are responsible for the YTD S&P 500 return, the broad market remains in a bear trend.
Stock Market Loses -34% During a Recession, On Average
The S&P 500 has lost an average of -34.9% during the last 14 recessions, going back to the 1920s.
Recession, Stagflation, and Falling Stock Prices
Two quarters of negative GDP growth in a row is the standard definition of a recession.
Bear Trend Likely to Continue?!
Stock markets broadly are in a bear trend, exhibiting lower highs and lower lows.
Coming Recession?
GDP is crashing and the bond market’s yield curve is falling fast, historically two recession signals.
Inflation Or Stagflation?
The highest inflation rates in 40 years could lead to stagflation.
The Everything Bubble
The Fed has created a bubble in real estate, the bond market, and the stock market through money printing and artificially holding interest rates low.
Markets Losing Momentum in the midst of an Epic Bubble and a Halt to the Printing Press?
As the markets lose the support of the printing press it is important to pay attention to a possible break in trend and to a possible recession.
BONDS HAVE OUTPERFORMED STOCKS OVER THE PAST 2 AND A HALF YEARS
In an environment of weak and flat earnings bonds have outperformed stocks
How Far Do Earnings Typically Fall in Recessions?
Drops of 20% or more during recessions are not uncommon.
FEDERAL RESERVE and INTEREST RATES - Q1 2020
The Federal Reserve is cutting rates at a pace that could indicate a recession.
LARGE PERCENTAGE OF PUBLIC COMPANIES ARE UNPROFITABLE
Cheap debt has propped up hundreds of companies that are not profitable.
FLAT STOCK MARKET
The major U.S. stock market indices are flat or rolling over into a bear trend.
SHILLER CAPE RATIO 2ND HIGHEST LEVEL IN HISTORY
The Shiller CAPE Ratio is higher than 1929 and the second highest in history.