The U.S. Stock Market is again trading at Historically High Valuations
Excessive money printing [deficit spending] has pushed the U.S. market back up to high valuations.
Today’s deficit spending is equivalent to how much the U.S. would normally spend in a war or during a recession in order to stimulate the economy.
The result has been strong and persistent inflation, high stock market valuations, and high interest rates (in many cases challenging consumer checkbooks).
We can best see where the U.S. markets are at through the Buffett Indicator and the Price to Earnings Ratio.
Investors in the retirement red zone should consider caution and examine the risks within their investment portfolios.
Buffett Indicator: US Stock Market Value to GDP
In mathematics, values are ‘outside of 2 standard deviations only 5% of the time’, 2.5% of the time they are above 2 standard deviations and 2.5% of the time they are below that level.
In other words, 97.5% of the time valuations are lower than 2 standard deviations.
This ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile, but GDP tends to grow much more predictably. The current ratio of 209% is approximately 67.57% (or about 2.2 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is Strongly Overvalued relative to GDP.
S&P 500 10 Year P/E Ratio
As the Price/Earnings ratio has approached the 2 standard deviation level it has typically experienced an exhaustion of buyers and a significant pullback.
The P/E ratio is a classic measure of a stock's value indicating how many years of profits (at the current earnings rate) it takes to recoup an investment in the stock. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 35.9. This is 76.4% above the modern-era market average of 20.3, putting the current P/E 1.9 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This suggests that the market is Overvalued.
DEFINITIONS
Buffett Indicator - also known as Market Cap to GDP, has gained prominence as a long-term valuation indicator for stocks, largely due to Warren Buffett's endorsement. In a Fortune Magazine interview back in 2001, Buffett referred to it as "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings (EPS). The price-to-earnings ratio is also sometimes known as the price multiple or the earnings multiple.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This correspondence expresses the opinions and views of the author as of the date indicated and are based on the author's interpretation of the concepts therein and may be subject to change without notice. Neither Highcroft Investment Advisors, Gerald Asplund, nor LPL Financial, has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein.
The information contained herein does not constitute and should not be construed as representation or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.
Some of the statements may be regarded as forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are, by their nature, subject to uncertainty. Forward-looking statements may include assumptions relating to future investment and economic scenarios. When used herein, the words “anticipate”, “believe”, “could”, “estimate”, “expect”, “going forward”, “intend”, “may”, “ought to”, “plan”, “project”, “seek”, “should”, “will”, “would” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect an opinion relating to future events and are not a guarantee of future performance or developments. Reliance on any forward-looking statements involves known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results and events may differ materially from information contained in the forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors. Accordingly, you should be prudent with your reliance on any forward-looking information or statements.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any investment or investment strategy outlined herein are not suitable for all investors, readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Wherever there is the potential for profit there is also the possibility of loss. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. The fast price swings in commodities and currencies can result in significant volatility within an investor's holdings.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor or broker, please note that Highcroft Investment Advisors, Gerald Asplund, and LPL Financial are not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
Certain information contained herein concerning economic trends, fundamentals, and/or technical analysis, and performance is based on or derived from information provided by independent third-party sources. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
Technical analysis is generally based on the study of price movement, volume, sentiment, and trading flows in an attempt to identify and project price trends. Technical analysis does not consider the fundamentals of the underlying corporate issuer.
The sources from which information has been obtained is assumed to be reliable; the accuracy of such information is not guaranteed and the accuracy and completeness of such information has not been independently verified.
This report, including the information contained herein, has been prepared exclusively for the use of Highcroft Investment Advisors clients, and may not be copied, reproduced, redistributed, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Highcroft Investment Advisors.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. Investing in the index would require investors purchase an investment product, which would involve fees and expenses.
ABOUT US
The advisors at Highcroft Investment Advisors provide retirement planning, investment management, financial planning, fiduciary investment management, and lifetime income planning. Certified Financial Planner. Working with business owners, individuals, and wealthy families near Wayzata, Minnetonka, Plymouth, Orono, Minnetrista, and Minneapolis Minnesota (55402, 55391, 55447, 55364, 55428).
The advisors at Highcroft Investment Advisors serve as a 3(21) and 3(38) Investment Fiduciary and fiduciary for labor union supplemental 401(k) and pension plans and corporate 401(k) plans. The advisors at Highcroft work with the union's counsel, recordkeeper, administrator, and the plan's trustees. United Association, Plumbers, Pipefitters, Steamfitters, IBEW, and Carpenters. Serving Wisconsin and Minnesota. 401(k) investment advisory services provided through LPL Financial's corporate RIA - offering 3(21) and 3(38) services.
Working with business owners, individuals, and wealthy families near Wayzata, Minnetonka, Plymouth, Orono, Minnetrista, and Minneapolis Minnesota (55402, 55391, 55447, 55364, 55428). As independent financial advisors we are not driven by certain products or services, instead we focus on your needs as an individual. Services include investment fiduciary fee only, retirement and divorce financial planning, life insurance, capital preservation, lifetime income planning, bonds, stocks, ETF, income, IRA, brokerage, rollover IRAs. Financial advisor near me, financial planner near me, independent planner near me.