Leading Economic Index fell again in November – Signaling Recession
Executive Summary
A negative LEI (Leading Economic Index) reading has accurately proceeded a recession going back to 1960.
Each time the LEI has dropped to -4% or below a recession has soon followed.
In their release the Conference Board stated that it “forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024”.
It is always possible that a recession can be avoided, no matter what various economic indicators say.
In my opinion it seems unlikely that a recession can be avoided given the magnitude and duration of the negative LEI reading, of course time will tell.
source: Conference Board and the Bureau of Economic Analysis
source: State Street Global Advisors
You can view the latest LEI release here: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
LPL 531440-1
DEFINITIONS
Leading Economic Index - An American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion.
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